The international oil and gas industry is expected to show structural recovery in 2021 |
[ Time:2021-01-13 | Hits:577 ] |
| After a severe impact in 2020, the international oil and gas industry has recently begun to show a trend of market demand recovery and oil price recovery. Novel coronavirus pneumonia, a deputy director of the national high end think tank research center of China Petroleum Group, Lv Jianzhong, pointed out that although the new changes in the global new crown pneumonia epidemic remain the biggest challenge of economic recovery, the international oil and gas industry in 2021 is expected to achieve structural recovery. The OPEC + alliance is committed to carefully maintaining the rebalancing of the international oil market. In the medium and short term, the market and price will tend to be stable, which is conducive to China's increasing domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts, but may also lead to long-term under investment in the global oil industry. China needs to optimize and adjust its oil import, strategic reserves, international cooperation and other strategies. Reporter: how to view the new high of international oil price in the first week of 2021? LV Jianzhong: the 13th OPEC + ministerial meeting held from January 4 to 5 reached an agreement on production reduction in the next two months. Due to Saudi Arabia's unilateral decision to voluntarily reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day in February and March, the small increase in production in Russia and Kazakhstan can be almost ignored. The scale of production reduction in the next two months will be expanded from 7.2 million barrels per day to about 8.1 million barrels per day, which will continue to increase Then it stimulated the rise of international oil price. The consultation results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting show that the OPEC + meeting reflects that the output strategy of the alliance is more pragmatic and flexible, and it has delivered the determination, determination and ability of joint market regulation to the international market. First, it reflects the concerns of oil producing countries about the market and their desire to adopt prudent strategies; second, it reflects that the OPEC + alliance is more mature and can seek compromise in differences; third, it reflects that Saudi Arabia's "boss" role and rational decision-making are unwilling to repeat the same mistakes and choose price protection between increasing production and price protection. Reporter: what will be the impact on the market for the whole year after the international oil price reaches the $50 / barrel level again? LV Jianzhong: after the formation of the OPEC + alliance, in 2020, the oil production will account for about 40% of the world's total, the export volume will account for 50%, and the output reduction will be more than 50%. Therefore, the OPEC + alliance will have a stronger position and greater influence in the international oil market. Based on this background, the oil price change at the beginning of the year caused by the OPEC + alliance production reduction agreement may have an impact on the future mainly in four aspects. First, simply from the perspective of OPEC + alliance's output adjustment strategy, due to the "small step, fast running and timely response", it is conducive to promoting the rebalancing of short-term and medium-term international oil supply-demand relationship, establishing a relatively stable international market, and preventing the market and oil price fluctuations. Second, because OPEC + member countries focus on short-term projects, mainly rely on surplus production capacity and inventory to adjust, significantly reduce and reduce strategic project investment (about 30%), which will inevitably affect the future supply capacity. Third, international oil supply is more dependent on OPEC + member countries and their national oil companies. Competition and cooperation in the international market will further evolve into a game between major oil producing countries, energy diplomacy will become more active, international oil geopolitics may become more complex, and non economic factors affecting the international market and oil prices will increase, which will directly affect national energy security. Fourth, the pace of global energy transformation is accelerating. International capital and international oil companies begin to turn to other renewable energy projects, resulting in a serious shortage of investment in oil projects. The global development, technological innovation and resource replacement of the oil and gas industry may be affected. Reporter: what impact will the new oil and gas market environment have on China in 2021, and how to deal with it? LV Jianzhong: for China, the stability of international market and oil price is conducive to increasing domestic oil and gas exploration and development, but it is necessary to optimize and adjust oil import, strategic reserve, international cooperation and other strategies. First of all, further increase the domestic upstream exploration and development of oil and gas. Due to the poor quality of domestic oil and gas resources and the difficulty of exploration and development, the average cost of onshore oil exploitation is about $50 / barrel. The recovery of international oil price can alleviate the contradiction of insufficient investment, high cost and low profit of domestic onshore oil and gas. It is necessary to seize the opportunity of oil price recovery, invest in the construction of strategic and alternative production capacity, and realize the goal of domestic crude oil production returning to 200 million tons per year as soon as possible. Second, expand the commercial operation of oil reserves. We should make overall planning for the construction of national strategic reserve, commercial reserve and enterprise production and operation inventory, appropriately increase the "low in and high out" operation proportion of commercial reserve, and form a linkage mechanism between oil reserve and production, processing, transportation and supply. We should strengthen the expectation management of the reserve market, straighten out the relationship between the reserve and the market, accurately implement the policies of purchasing, selling and rotation, and enrich the policy tools for the government to guide the market expectation and regulate the economy. Finally, adjust the international energy cooperation strategy. The rise of oil price will bring the impulse of international oil and gas investment. We should pay more attention to energy cooperation with neighboring countries, encourage the whole industry chain cooperation in upstream and downstream, stabilize the regional situation through energy diplomacy, balance the interests of all parties, and promote the formation of a regional pattern of oil and gas production, transportation and consumption. At the same time, we should pay attention to the relationship between traditional oil and gas business and new energy projects, oil and gas business investment and social development, as well as "the government set up the stage, enterprises play". |